So many moving parts this week and few of them appear healthy. Stay close to your positions.
From Perplexity:
Key Events Likely to Impact the U.S. Stock Market This Week (February 10–14, 2025)
The U.S. stock market is poised for a critical week as investors navigate a mix of economic data releases, corporate earnings reports, and policy developments. Below is a detailed breakdown of the most significant events that could shape market movements this week.
Inflation Data: Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI)
CPI Report – Wednesday, February 12
The January CPI report will be released midweek and is expected to provide crucial insights into inflationary pressures:
– Core CPI (excluding food and energy) will be closely monitored to assess underlying inflation trends.
– A higher-than-expected CPI reading could signal persistent inflation, potentially leading the Federal Reserve to maintain its current interest rate levels for longer. This would likely weigh on growth stocks.
– Conversely, a softer inflation print could boost equities by raising hopes for future rate cuts.
PPI Report – Thursday, February 13
The PPI report will follow on Thursday, offering a glimpse into producer-level inflation:
– Rising PPI figures could indicate cost pressures for businesses, potentially impacting profit margins.
– A decline in PPI may ease concerns about inflation, supporting market sentiment.
Retail Sales Data – Friday, February 14
Retail sales data for January will be released at the end of the week. This report is critical for gauging consumer spending trends, which account for about 70% of U.S. GDP:
– Strong retail sales figures would suggest resilient consumer demand, which could lift consumer discretionary stocks.
– Weak sales data might raise concerns about slowing economic growth and its potential impact on corporate earnings.
Corporate Earnings Reports
This week marks a pivotal period in the Q4 2024 earnings season, with several high-profile companies set to release their results:
Key Reports to Watch
– Monday, February 10: McDonald’s (MCD), ON Semiconductor (ON), Monday.com (MNDY).
– Tuesday, February 11: Coca-Cola (KO), Shopify (SHOP), BP (BP), Lyft (LYFT).
– Wednesday, February 12: Cisco Systems (CSCO), Super Micro Computer (SMCI).
– Thursday, February 13: Airbnb (ABNB), Roku (ROKU), DraftKings (DKNG).
Key Themes
Tech and AI Investments: Companies like Cisco and Super Micro Computer are expected to provide updates on AI-driven infrastructure investments.
Consumer Spending Trends: Reports from McDonald’s and Coca-Cola will offer insights into consumer behavior amid elevated inflation.
Market Volatility: High-beta stocks like Coinbase and DraftKings may experience sharp post-earnings price swings.
Investors will analyze these reports for guidance on sector performance and broader economic trends.
Federal Reserve Commentary
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress this week:
– On Tuesday, Powell will appear before the Senate Banking Committee.
– On Wednesday, he will testify before the House Financial Services Committee.
These appearances will be closely watched for any signals regarding the Fed’s future monetary policy stance. With interest rates currently held at 4.25%–4.50%, Powell’s comments on inflation and labor market dynamics could influence market expectations about potential rate cuts or prolonged pauses in monetary easing.
Geopolitical Developments
Geopolitical risks remain a wildcard for markets this week:
– Trade Policies: President Trump’s recent tariff announcements on Mexico, Canada, and China have rattled markets. While some tariffs were temporarily rolled back last week, ongoing trade tensions with China remain a concern as retaliatory measures are expected.
– Energy Prices: Volatility in oil prices due to geopolitical instability could affect energy stocks and broader market sentiment.
Market Sentiment and Technical Levels
Last week saw all major U.S. stock indexes close in the red:
– The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.54%.
– The S&P 500 declined by 0.24%.
– The Nasdaq Composite dropped by 0.53%, while the Nasdaq-100 managed a slight gain of 0.06%.
Investors will monitor key technical levels this week as markets react to economic data and earnings reports.
Conclusion
This week presents a high-stakes environment for the U.S. stock market as critical economic data releases, corporate earnings updates, and Federal Reserve commentary converge. Inflation reports will likely set the tone for interest rate expectations, while retail sales data and corporate earnings will provide insights into consumer behavior and sector-specific trends. Investors should brace for heightened volatility as markets digest these developments.
Citations: [1] https://pune.news/market/3-key-economic-events-that-could-impact-markets-this-week-feb-10-14-2025-303753/ [2] https://www.dallasfed.org/news/speeches/logan/2025/lkl250206 [3] https://pune.news/market/most-anticipated-earnings-releases-for-the-week-of-february-10-14-2025-303755/ [4] https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/3-economic-events-that-could-affect-your-portfolio-this-week-february-10-14-2025-1034330233 [5] https://tradingeconomics.com/earnings-calendar [6] https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20250129a.htm [7] https://www.marketscreener.com/news/latest/Week-Ahead-for-FX-Bonds-U-S-Inflation-Data-Fed-Comments-in-Focus-49003270/ [8] https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/most-anticipated-earnings-this-week-%E2%80%93-february-10-14-2025-1034330258 [9] https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/20250207_mprfullreport.pdf [10] https://www.riotimesonline.com/economic-calendar-key-market-events-for-the-week-from-february-10-to-to-14-2025/ [11] https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0011
