Over the next year, I’ll keep this page updated with my thoughts and observations. This should be fun.
It’s that time again – the ridiculous clown show that is our four-year presidential election cycle.
As we get closer to 2020, our challenge as voters will be seeing what’s real through a barrage of noise. Media outlets live for these election cycles. Their viewership goes up as drama feeds on itself. What results is a feedback loop between media and the viewers that evolves into tribalism. Before too long, the media will lock in on their favorite candidate and start directing their viewers to follow. You don’t have a chance to win an election without winning with the media first.
Prediction (Aug 4th, 2019): Biden/Warren ticket beats Trump.
Prediction (Aug 10th, 2019): Biden/Warren ticket beats Trump.
Favorite Candidate (Aug 4th, 2019): Pete Why: Crazy intelligent and level headed. Why not: Hasn’t spent enough time taking hits and probably doesn’t have a broad enough understanding of what is working/not working in America. Why he won’t win: No minority support. Why he will win: Smartest person on the stage.
Polling Data
Real Clear Politics is my starting point. I don’t visit it for the articles very often, but I do watch the polling data. Sure, I’ll tune into some of the talking heads on CNN and MSNBC, but mainly to see who they are coalescing behind.
8/4/19– It’s obvious that Biden will be the democratic nominee. I don’t have any reason to believe that’ll change unless he does something completely stupid – which is always possible with him. His compassion is his advantage. He genuinely wants to be closer to the people and gets his feelings hurt if people attack his character. He has many flaws, but it’s not a bad direction to go after what we’re dealing with now.
8/10/19 – Last week I thought hat Biden was a lock for the nomination. I still think he gets the nomination, but it’s maybe interesting now. Biden is still solidly ahead, but he sure comes across as an aging man whose pencils have dulled. He’s not as creative on his feet as he should be when fielding questions and he CONTINUES to make unforced errors.
Last week we had two mass shootings. These devastating, uniquely American, acts of domestic terrorism continue to do the opposite of what you would expect. Instead of bringing us together, the debate over mass shootings and what to do about gun violence divides us deeply. In typical Joe fashion, he observed the recent killings in Houston and Michigan.. Umm. Joe, the shootings were in El Paso and Ohio. Good grief, man.
The latest polls are interesting because the sharp minded, policy carrying Warren is gaining ground on Biden. No one is putting out more policy ideas (she’s Tweeting today about her new plan on gun violence) and no one is pulling voters away from Sanders more than Warren. Her far left stance is starting to pull in 1/2 the Democratic voters who want a big Left shakeup, while Biden with a dash of Buttigieg and Harris are attracting the middle.
Warren steps into second place:
Real Clear Politics Poll 8/10/19
Nominee Websites and Positions:
Those who actually have a change of winning
